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> Shootas in trukks vs mech, We don't do drive-bys, we park outside of houses and shoot!
Boss Gobbstompa
post May 26 2012, 12:22 PM
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I haven't read everything, but if I'm understanding this correctly, you're trying to use shootaz as an anti-tank weapon? Why? Considering that nearly every transport in the game except two (three if you include the Land Speeder Storm, which no one uses where I live), has Armor 11 minimum, and if you're able to get in the back it's because the transport has done its job already, you can't do anything to transports with a shoota. Big shootaz, maybe, Rokkitz if you hit. A plank is the only reliable way to open up a transport with a unit of shoota boyz, and it's certainly not that expensive.

And shootaz in a trukk that isn't moving are sitting ducks. Trukkz are exceedingly fragile when they're sitting still. They're not nearly as good as being a mobile pillbox as Battlewagons, or even a Looted Wagon. And 12 shoota boyz by themselves are not that phenomenal, nor are they particularly hearty. They're not going to last through a round of shooting or assault, and aren't much of a threat to anyone or anything.

If you're using Shootaz as anti-tank weapons, you're making a huge mistake.


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QUOTE (nkelsch @ Dec 10 2009, 10:15 AM) *
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MaddaMek
post May 26 2012, 02:59 PM
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Trukkers are IMHO slightly better at AT than foot Boyz (CC AT suck since any unit You bail out of their ride would be gun-happy).

10 Boyz with RL in RL Trukk - 110 points
20 Boyz, 2 RL - 140 points

Also, You are in vehicle, fast OT vehicle, You can Ram/Tank Shock (with Ram) and You can shot up to two targets if You need to. Hell, You can ride and Klaw things if You like (consider it as ranged AT, except You shoot YOUR GUYS instead of bullets), with WAAAGH You potentially can "outshoot" rocket (and still fire Rokkit on Trukk).


...yeah, foot units suck "in vacuum" comparison.


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Blakkreaper
post May 28 2012, 06:35 AM
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QUOTE (Cossack @ May 27 2012, 02:58 AM) *
Yes.

What's a "Killpoint"?

A rather poor mechanic, which only is used 1/3 of the time and even then, doesn't change the fact that MSU Mech is far superior to any alternatives.

QUOTE (Boss Gobbstompa @ May 27 2012, 03:22 AM) *
I haven't read everything, but if I'm understanding this correctly, you're trying to use shootaz as an anti-tank weapon? Why?

Not so much as a go to anti-tank weapon, but just measuring their ability to deal with mech, because it is prevailant and orks need more tools to deal with mech.
QUOTE
Considering that nearly every transport in the game except two (three if you include the Land Speeder Storm, which no one uses where I live), has Armor 11 minimum, and if you're able to get in the back it's because the transport has done its job already, you can't do anything to transports with a shoota. Big shootaz, maybe, Rokkitz if you hit. A plank is the only reliable way to open up a transport with a unit of shoota boyz, and it's certainly not that expensive.

Every transport you see in compeditive lists is the thing I'm working with. Regardless, AV10 rear armour is nearly ubiqious and AV10side armour is not uncommon (chimera and chim hulls). In most comp lists, transports do their job as long as they live, because their job is to stop you from shooting the unit inside of it. Planks are hardly reliable (get within melta range, the least you can expect is 4+ to hit, but often 6+ to hit).
QUOTE
And shootaz in a trukk that isn't moving are sitting ducks. Trukkz are exceedingly fragile when they're sitting still. They're not nearly as good as being a mobile pillbox as Battlewagons, or even a Looted Wagon. And 12 shoota boyz by themselves are not that phenomenal, nor are they particularly hearty. They're not going to last through a round of shooting or assault, and aren't much of a threat to anyone or anything.

They wouldn't be in the trukks. I'd be using the trukks to get around side/rear. 12" move, disembark, shoot and hopefully charge the contents. They're not the metal boxes that MSU mech is built around. They're engines on wheels, and thusly, have a far different role. Get the boyz behild the chims. If they're running a comp MSU Mech list, don't
QUOTE
If you're using Shootaz as anti-tank weapons, you're making a huge mistake.

Anti-infantry that in the right circumstances aren't as bad at anti-mech as many would think.

QUOTE (MaddaMek @ May 27 2012, 05:59 AM) *
Trukkers are IMHO slightly better at AT than foot Boyz (CC AT suck since any unit You bail out of their ride would be gun-happy).

10 Boyz with RL in RL Trukk - 110 points
20 Boyz, 2 RL - 140 points

Also, You are in vehicle, fast OT vehicle, You can Ram/Tank Shock (with Ram) and You can shot up to two targets if You need to. Hell, You can ride and Klaw things if You like (consider it as ranged AT, except You shoot YOUR GUYS instead of bullets), with WAAAGH You potentially can "outshoot" rocket (and still fire Rokkit on Trukk).


...yeah, foot units suck "in vacuum" comparison.

Don't forget that they can get to the side/rear AV10s, which you need. Gotta maximise your chances.

They also suck in practice, if the compeditive 40k scene is any indicator.


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Boss Gobbstompa
post May 28 2012, 11:00 AM
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The problem is that most often, the transports are either the first wave of an attack, so you've got the rest of their army behind you and you're sandwiched in between them praying for enough glances to destroy all the weapons, and immobilize it twice. For something that hits on a 5+, glances on a 6+ and deals damage on a 5+, you need a ridiculous number of shots to reliably do that even once, much less the usual 4 times. Working it out, it looks like you'll need 216 shots to be able to destroy a tank on its AV10 side with shootaz. That's 108 shoota boyz. With 11 boyz with shootaz in a trukk, you're looking at 10 trukkz focusing fire on 1 Chimera or Rhino from its weakest side to be able to destroy it in one turn reliably. Shootaz are not anti-tank weapons. If you're trying to use them as such, you're making a HUGE mistake. If I were playing beakies, and you were trying this on me, I'd laugh you completely out of the store. A single power klaw stands a better chance of destroying a cruising-speed Rhino from a plank than a shoota has dealing any kind of glancing damage at all, and a PK can do it from any angle.

And besides, once your 108 shootaz have opened up that one transport, then what? You've fire your entire army at the transport trying to pop it, you can't do anything to the unit that was inside. So it's no different than getting out of a trukk and opening up the Rhino with a powerklaw and finding yourself helpless to hit the unit inside.

This is not a good idea. What on Earth makes you think that Shootaz are good as anti-tank weapons?


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Nkelsch on the differences between disembarking from open-topped vehicles and closed vehicles.
QUOTE (nkelsch @ Dec 10 2009, 10:15 AM) *
Compare a bunch if drunk rednecks jumping out of the back of a pickup truck VS a bunch of old ladies getting off the bus.

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Blakkreaper
post May 28 2012, 11:11 PM
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QUOTE (Boss Gobbstompa @ May 29 2012, 02:00 AM) *
The problem is that most often, the transports are either the first wave of an attack, so you've got the rest of their army behind you and you're sandwiched in between them praying for enough glances to destroy all the weapons, and immobilize it twice. For something that hits on a 5+, glances on a 6+ and deals damage on a 5+, you need a ridiculous number of shots to reliably do that even once, much less the usual 4 times. Working it out, it looks like you'll need 216 shots to be able to destroy a tank on its AV10 side with shootaz. That's 108 shoota boyz. With 11 boyz with shootaz in a trukk, you're looking at 10 trukkz focusing fire on 1 Chimera or Rhino from its weakest side to be able to destroy it in one turn reliably. Shootaz are not anti-tank weapons. If you're trying to use them as such, you're making a HUGE mistake. If I were playing beakies, and you were trying this on me, I'd laugh you completely out of the store. A single power klaw stands a better chance of destroying a cruising-speed Rhino from a plank than a shoota has dealing any kind of glancing damage at all, and a PK can do it from any angle.

You're using averages, which can be handy, but the math in my first post works on probabilities, which is better. Note that the 9 shootas + 2 big shootas (one on trukk, one on mob) does better then 3 rokkits against AV10. I'm not advocating it as a main strat, but when every bit of anti-mech we can muster needs to be used, I'm saying that shootas in trukks are our best troops option - even when they're specialised as anti-infantry. I'm yet to test this out as much as I'd like, but what tests I have run/chances to use this in games have been helpful. Remember, I'm not looking for destroyed, but immobalised results. If you can immobalise the troop transports, you take away the mobility of mech, and the immunity to CC. Then grabbing objectives becomes much harder for them - especially as their squads aren't usually too resiliant out of transports. Once it's imobalised, assaulting it becomes a viable tactic (huzzah autohitting) and going back to PK nob opening it, and covering all the exits and hoping not to 'splode it goes ok. If you open it while shooting, you can assault the innards, which is the ideal situation. If you fail to open/imob it with shooting, well, you're not much worse off then everyday sluggas at this stage.
QUOTE
And besides, once your 108 shootaz have opened up that one transport, then what? You've fire your entire army at the transport trying to pop it, you can't do anything to the unit that was inside. So it's no different than getting out of a trukk and opening up the Rhino with a powerklaw and finding yourself helpless to hit the unit inside.

This is not a good idea. What on Earth makes you think that Shootaz are good as anti-tank weapons?

Not good anti-tank. Better then the lackluster alternatives we have in troops slots. Big shootas > rokkits vs AV10 (and open topped AV11, because that's *so* common pphhtork.gif ). Big shootas are better at anti-infantry as well, and iirc. better at anti MEQ.

I should be clear. I'm not looking to say Shootas are good anti-tank, just that their marginal advantages over sluggas vs. av10 and the fact that they'll still stomp anything that the sluggas will in h2h (that you see in a comp MSU Mech scene anyhow), and lose to the same things too, the extra firepower/sucking-LESS-at_antimech means that they're the strictly better choice over sluggas in this meta. If you're finding that you're not struggling with orks, you're likely not in the same meta. If you find that you're not only facing walls of transports, you're in a different meta. If you see Land Raider Pointsinks, Lascannons on infantry , etc. it's a different meta.


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Boss Gobbstompa
post May 29 2012, 08:33 AM
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If you're counting on shootaz OR sluggaz to open a transport, you're doing it wrong. That's what Powerklawz are for. That's what Lootaz are for. That's what Deffkoptaz and Rokkit Buggies are for. That's what Deffrollaz, Dredz, and Kanz are for. That's what Warbosses and Nobz are for. That's what Tankbustaz are for. That's what nearly EVERYTHING ELSE we have is supposed to do. If you're going to move all of your troops ridiculously out of position in hopes of getting some tasty back armor on one single transport, then you're making a horrible mistake. Yes, while Shootaz are twice as good as sluggaz at getting through AV10 on a speeding vehicle IF the shootaz find themselves miraculously behind said vehicle and in a position to shoot, the odds are so astronomically slim that it really doesn't make a difference. You still need 108 boyz to reliably deal enough damage to wreck it. And if you don't wreck it, it WILL wreck you or simply repair its immobilization and keep going if it's a rhino.

This has nothing to do with what meta we're each playing in. Anyone who has any brains is not going to let you move your entire army behind all of his transports so you can shoot them in their rear armor with piddly weapons. If they're beakies, they'll light your trukkz up with Devestators. If it's 'umie, they'll light your trukkz up with Hydraz, Leman Russes, heavy weapons teams, and EVERYTHING ELSE in their arsenal. If it's panzee, then they've probably slit their wrists long ago and it's a non-issue.

Seriously, this isn't even a tactic that merits discussion because no one CAN field enough trukk boyz mobs to pull this off on one vehicle, much less use it as any part of their game plan.

If your last remaining option for anti-tank is shootaz, then you really need to re-think your roster and your tactics, because you're doing it horribly, horribly wrong.


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Nkelsch on the differences between disembarking from open-topped vehicles and closed vehicles.
QUOTE (nkelsch @ Dec 10 2009, 10:15 AM) *
Compare a bunch if drunk rednecks jumping out of the back of a pickup truck VS a bunch of old ladies getting off the bus.

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Blakkreaper
post May 30 2012, 09:54 AM
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You do know that unloading against AV10 with shootas brings your PK's odds of destorying it up from bleep.gif all to over 90%? You make each attack 6 times more deadly if you immob it with masesd shoota fire.

Lootas are good, don't get me wrong. But 3x lootas + 3x Whichever FA Anti-mech takes your fancy are not enough in a comp meta. IF the fragile units don't die, they on average will open less chimeras then many of these armies take. All the compeditive armies get more anti-tank in their troops alone then orks can get in a whole list. Don't by any means discount your real anti-mech units. But I guarentee you they will not be enough when you're facing 20+ chimeras, with supporting vehicles. Clearly one doesn't rely on shootas. However, if you can't use your fast speed + reinforced rams to cut though some terrain and get to a chimera's side armour, I don't think we're playing the same game. Rhinos are trickier, what with the SA11, but even so, if you can't get near them and disembark is such a way that your mob can fire at their rear armour then either your opponents are waaay better then mine or you're struggling to keep up. Remember that the trukks are inherently disposable, because nothing you do will keep them together in any realiable way.


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Let's gross our fingers and sacraface pot Blood Red to Bitz God... [Morhgoz]
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"Giving Krooza an idea, now prooven to be just as bad as saying 'Go on Dim, rant away!" [Dim Reepa]
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Klawgut
post May 30 2012, 10:18 AM
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I have always used shoota boys in 5th ed trukk mobs! Yeah in CC you lose the +1 for 2 cc weapons but you make up for it with the +1 shot before you assault. I dont primarily use my shootas to pop transports. Apart from my orks and my guard not many other vehicle heavy lists play at my club. I have however shot down many landspeeders from the red beakies and love drive by shooting at the enemy and watching their faces as I roll a bucket full of dice, usually with comedic outcomes!


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Boss Gobbstompa
post May 30 2012, 10:34 AM
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QUOTE (Blakkreaper @ May 30 2012, 10:54 AM) *
You do know that unloading against AV10 with shootas brings your PK's odds of destorying it up from bleep.gif all to over 90%? You make each attack 6 times more deadly if you immob it with masesd shoota fire.

Lootas are good, don't get me wrong. But 3x lootas + 3x Whichever FA Anti-mech takes your fancy are not enough in a comp meta. IF the fragile units don't die, they on average will open less chimeras then many of these armies take. All the compeditive armies get more anti-tank in their troops alone then orks can get in a whole list. Don't by any means discount your real anti-mech units. But I guarentee you they will not be enough when you're facing 20+ chimeras, with supporting vehicles. Clearly one doesn't rely on shootas. However, if you can't use your fast speed + reinforced rams to cut though some terrain and get to a chimera's side armour, I don't think we're playing the same game. Rhinos are trickier, what with the SA11, but even so, if you can't get near them and disembark is such a way that your mob can fire at their rear armour then either your opponents are waaay better then mine or you're struggling to keep up. Remember that the trukks are inherently disposable, because nothing you do will keep them together in any realiable way.


Well, if we're now including powerklawz, then why get out of the trukk at all? Put a plank on there, shoot everything out of the trukk, then plank the vehicle. But, in the VERY rare instance that you even get through the Armor 10 of a transport 1/18 chance, you THEN only have an additional 1/6 chance of immobilizing it. So each shot has a 1/108 chance of making the powerklaw hit better. You're telling me you're going to risk a scoring unit costing a little over 100 points on a tactic that has a 20% chance of making your powerklaw hit automatically, and only a 40% chance of dealing any damage at all?

Good luck with that.

And yes, while it's frequently the case that opponents field more transports than we have anti-tank units. However, I'm going to send my anti-infantry units against the infantry that have already been forced to walk, not after vehicles that they only have a 20% chance of dealing damage that my opponent can repair and ZERO chance of destroying. The object is not to completely destroy their army, but rather to weaken it enough to the point where it is not effective anymore. You don't have to completely wipe out an army in the first turn to win the game.


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Nkelsch on the differences between disembarking from open-topped vehicles and closed vehicles.
QUOTE (nkelsch @ Dec 10 2009, 10:15 AM) *
Compare a bunch if drunk rednecks jumping out of the back of a pickup truck VS a bunch of old ladies getting off the bus.

BLAAAGH!!! Gobbstompa (WIP/Magnetizing tutorial)
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Oldfart
post May 30 2012, 08:26 PM
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Dim, I agree with you mostly. And yes I play gaurd they have very similar lists to the ones you so kindly posted the links too, the only difference one takes 2 colosses and a Griffon and one takes the manticore options. There tough lists to beat. Am going to try the speed freaks once again. Kan wall did okay but Battle wagon bash does not work. Suprisingly horde does okay gives a good fight but very hard to win with.

At least thats my experience.

AV 10 stuff dies very very quick so trukks tend to die in droves.

Old fart


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Blakkreaper
post Jun 1 2012, 12:58 AM
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QUOTE (Boss Gobbstompa @ May 31 2012, 01:34 AM) *
Well, if we're now including powerklawz, then why get out of the trukk at all? Put a plank on there, shoot everything out of the trukk, then plank the vehicle. But, in the VERY rare instance that you even get through the Armor 10 of a transport 1/18 chance, you THEN only have an additional 1/6 chance of immobilizing it. So each shot has a 1/108 chance of making the powerklaw hit better. You're telling me you're going to risk a scoring unit costing a little over 100 points on a tactic that has a 20% chance of making your powerklaw hit automatically, and only a 40% chance of dealing any damage at all?

Good luck with that.

And yes, while it's frequently the case that opponents field more transports than we have anti-tank units. However, I'm going to send my anti-infantry units against the infantry that have already been forced to walk, not after vehicles that they only have a 20% chance of dealing damage that my opponent can repair and ZERO chance of destroying. The object is not to completely destroy their army, but rather to weaken it enough to the point where it is not effective anymore. You don't have to completely wipe out an army in the first turn to win the game.


You're using averages again. They're less good for this sort of thing then the straight odds . That said, we're getting out because we want to move over 6". If you move 12" you can't shoot unless you hop out. Because lol 5th edition.

You have closer to a 30% chance of imobalising it, and closer to 60% of doing permanent damage of some kind. And teh boyz charging do help the power claws odds as well, and if it's already imob'd stand a decent chance of glancing it to death for the wrecked (kill unit inside, because you *did* cover the hatches, right?) result.

This is more for the phase where their infantry hasn't been kicked out of transports yet, or the ones that have are more then dealt with.


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Cheerz to Thork for the Great Avvy.
Genrul blakkreaper ov da dreadsokk korpz - fightin' Ruleslawyer gitz and keepin' it proppa.
Let's gross our fingers and sacraface pot Blood Red to Bitz God... [Morhgoz]
I oppose RAW evil; or, more importantly; The Dice Gods oppose RAW evil. [Andrew the Eternal's proppa hiaku]

"Giving Krooza an idea, now prooven to be just as bad as saying 'Go on Dim, rant away!" [Dim Reepa]
"We don't have a Battle Tank. We have a glorified transport that eats people." "like a surgical sledgehammer." [GrogDaTyrant]
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butcherbloke
post Jun 1 2012, 05:17 AM
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QUOTE (Blakkreaper @ Jun 1 2012, 12:58 AM) *
You're using averages again. They're less good for this sort of thing then the straight odds .


No, they are not. they give you very useful information AND with context can be used to deduce the odds. The only problem with averages is that they are sometimes misunderstood and used in the wrong way. You just need the context. Also the less units in the average result the less info you get. An average of one wound does not tell you the odds of getting that wound, other than you are more likely to wound, than to not wound. but bearing in mind the context, and the roles you need to make the odds are simply deduced.

And no, he isn't using averages, he is using the odds expressed as a fraction, which you yourself calculated for each shot to get a wound. Allow me to quote you...
QUOTE
2/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 per shoota/slugga shot. Or 2/216, or 1/108 per shoota shot.
So the odds of not imob is 107/108 in each shot.


Those odds expressed as a percentage are 0.93% chance per shot to imob. Take 10 shotas and that becomes 9.3%, 9 shootas 8.3% chance of imob.

----------------------------------------

But let's forget all that.... what are you trying to say? that if you have to choose between shooting a vehicle with sluggas or shootas, you would be better off with the shootas? I don't think anyone would disagree with that. But those points would be better spent elsewhere for anti tank.


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Boss Gobbstompa
post Jun 1 2012, 09:19 AM
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Exactly. I'm not using averages. I'm using the odds that YOU presented in your proposal AND that I worked out myself. The odds of immobilizing a vehicle is 1/108 which means you DO need 108 shots to reliably have a chance of immobilizing it.

Where on earth do you get the idea that you have a 60% chance of dealing permanent damage when NOTHING shooting at the thing has a better than 50% of hitting, glancing, or dealing permanent damage of any kind?

Your argument is flawed horribly, your tactic is laughable, and you're shooting down your own calculations when they're shown to not actually favor your own position.

Seriously, just let it go.


--------------------
Nkelsch on the differences between disembarking from open-topped vehicles and closed vehicles.
QUOTE (nkelsch @ Dec 10 2009, 10:15 AM) *
Compare a bunch if drunk rednecks jumping out of the back of a pickup truck VS a bunch of old ladies getting off the bus.

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Blakkreaper
post Jun 2 2012, 03:54 AM
Post #34


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Ugh, computer reset and ate my reply halfway through. Still, take II:

QUOTE (butcherbloke @ Jun 1 2012, 08:17 PM) *
No, they are not. they give you very useful information AND with context can be used to deduce the odds. The only problem with averages is that they are sometimes misunderstood and used in the wrong way. You just need the context. Also the less units in the average result the less info you get. An average of one wound does not tell you the odds of getting that wound, other than you are more likely to wound, than to not wound. but bearing in mind the context, and the roles you need to make the odds are simply deduced.

We're trying to do work out the odds of a result that does not scale. Either it's imob'd or not. It's wrecked or not. Getting the odds of at least one result is more useful then getting the average number or wrecked results a unit will inflict.

QUOTE
And no, he isn't using averages, he is using the odds expressed as a fraction, which you yourself calculated for each shot to get a wound. Allow me to quote you...

He wasn't using my odds. I didn't say 20%.
QUOTE
Those odds expressed as a percentage are 0.93% chance per shot to imob. Take 10 shotas and that becomes 9.3%, 9 shootas 8.3% chance of imob.

----------------------------------------

But let's forget all that.... what are you trying to say? that if you have to choose between shooting a vehicle with sluggas or shootas, you would be better off with the shootas? I don't think anyone would disagree with that. But those points would be better spent elsewhere for anti tank.

I'm saying that although not good, that shootas ability to handle mech is better then many think. I'm saying that because you won't have enough anti-tank, and what anti-tank you have won't last very long against savvy opponents, you'll be in a position where knowing the odds involved could be useful.

QUOTE (Boss Gobbstompa @ Jun 2 2012, 12:19 AM) *
Exactly. I'm not using averages. I'm using the odds that YOU presented in your proposal AND that I worked out myself. The odds of immobilizing a vehicle is 1/108 which means you DO need 108 shots to reliably have a chance of immobilizing it.

Not sure where you got the 20% from then.
QUOTE
Where on earth do you get the idea that you have a 60% chance of dealing permanent damage when NOTHING shooting at the thing has a better than 50% of hitting, glancing, or dealing permanent damage of any kind?

The odds of the swaud doing at least one imob or better is 28%. Closer to 30% then your 20%. The 60% was an off the cuff error actually (sorry blushork2.gif ), it'd be closer to 50%, since I forgot that the 28% was for imob or the unlikely destroyed result. I could work out the odds of at least one weapon destoryed/imob/vehicle wrecked result if you like, but why don't you work it out? The trick is not to go to averages (one in 108 chance means you need 108 shots is *not* how it works) but to find the odds of failure, put it to the power of the number of attmepts, and get the inverse of that to find the odds of at least one success. Because at least one imob'd is imob'd. You know what you call the second Imob'd result? Weapon Destroyed. I didn't calculate for these, though they would bump up the potential damage a little bit, as opposed to the inverse.

As a side note: The PK on a Plank? If the vehicle moves 7" (and this is for those situations) then you have a 28% chance of imob'd or better. Same odds. Your odds of a wrecked (17%) are much higher then the odds of a wrecked from the shootas and two big shootas (trukk and mob) odds (11%) but the trukkers are now on foot and able to charge, the ideally imob'd vehicle. The complete run (dakka + boyz charge attacks + PK swings) has a 43% chance of destroying it (actually higher because my math discounts the odds of anything but the PK doing the kill, and only tracks the odds of everything else imobalising it, ignoring the tiny chance of it being glanced to death, and the less tiny chance of one of the big shootas scoring a lucky destroyed result. It turns out that if you have the move to charge the vehicle with the boys, and shoot the rear armour you can get much better odds of wrecking it then you could by not doing so. That said, this does mean you need to get behind it with your 12" movement (though only within 8" of it, and you can be closer) as opposed to in b2b anywhere with your 12" movement (plank max). If one's advancing from the front, this could be an issue. If one is coming from a flank, mayhaps over some terrain? Less so.


--------------------
Cheerz to Thork for the Great Avvy.
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Let's gross our fingers and sacraface pot Blood Red to Bitz God... [Morhgoz]
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Boss Gobbstompa
post Jun 3 2012, 10:54 PM
Post #35


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QUOTE (Blakkreaper @ Jun 2 2012, 04:54 AM) *
Ugh, computer reset and ate my reply halfway through. Still, take II:


We're trying to do work out the odds of a result that does not scale. Either it's imob'd or not. It's wrecked or not. Getting the odds of at least one result is more useful then getting the average number or wrecked results a unit will inflict.

The odds of a unit getting a permanent damage result is so slim that you'd need ten units of trukk boyz to get it. We've established this.
QUOTE (Blakkreaper @ Jun 2 2012, 04:54 AM) *
He wasn't using my odds. I didn't say 20%.

No, but a unit of Trukk Boyz has a 20% chance of immobilizing a vehicle under the most perfect of circumstances by firing shootaz at it. Hence a 20% chance of making the Powerklaw hit automatically.
QUOTE (Blakkreaper @ Jun 2 2012, 04:54 AM) *
I'm saying that although not good, that shootas ability to handle mech is better then many think. I'm saying that because you won't have enough anti-tank, and what anti-tank you have won't last very long against savvy opponents, you'll be in a position where knowing the odds involved could be useful.

Something that has such a slim chance of working is not useful. It's not even remotely useful. Useful is where you can build a tactic or a strategy around it. You can't build a strategy around a tactic that requires over 50% more units on the board than you can legally take in order to work reliably. You want to know the odds? Astronomically slim. Those are the odds. If a savvy player has managed to neutralize ALL of your anti-tank before you can pop ANY of their transports with them, how long do you really think your toilet-paper armored trukkz are going to last within 18" of his transports? Considering that our transports CAN be wrecked by their most basic of anti-infantry weapons, AND that they'll be sporting some anti-tank weapons that just laughs at AV10 open-topped, do you somehow think a savvy player is going to suddenly stop shooting their long-range weapons just because they've neutralized your anti-tank units? Because that's yet ANOTHER thing your strategy is relying on in order for it to work at all.
QUOTE (Blakkreaper @ Jun 2 2012, 04:54 AM) *
Not sure where you got the 20% from then.

A unit of shootaz in a Trukk has a 20% chance of dealing ONE permanent damage result. And you need at LEAST 4 in order to destroy a transport through glancing.
QUOTE (Blakkreaper @ Jun 2 2012, 04:54 AM) *
The odds of the swaud doing at least one imob or better is 28%. Closer to 30% then your 20%. The 60% was an off the cuff error actually (sorry blushork2.gif ), it'd be closer to 50%, since I forgot that the 28% was for imob or the unlikely destroyed result. I could work out the odds of at least one weapon destoryed/imob/vehicle wrecked result if you like, but why don't you work it out? The trick is not to go to averages (one in 108 chance means you need 108 shots is *not* how it works) but to find the odds of failure, put it to the power of the number of attmepts, and get the inverse of that to find the odds of at least one success. Because at least one imob'd is imob'd. You know what you call the second Imob'd result? Weapon Destroyed. I didn't calculate for these, though they would bump up the potential damage a little bit, as opposed to the inverse.

Maybe, if you include a pair of big shootaz. The thing is, shootaz (the weapon) cannot get a destroyed result until the vehicle is completely bereft of weapons AND is already immobilized. For a Rhino, that's a Storm Bolter, Pintle Storm Bolter, and an immob. For a Chimera, that's a Hull weapon, turret, and (maybe) a pintle storm bolter or something? So that's 4, maybe 5 times you need to glance something when you need a TON of boyz to even do it once. You're NOT going to be successful with this AT ALL.
QUOTE (Blakkreaper @ Jun 2 2012, 04:54 AM) *
As a side note: The PK on a Plank? If the vehicle moves 7" (and this is for those situations) then you have a 28% chance of imob'd or better. Same odds. Your odds of a wrecked (17%) are much higher then the odds of a wrecked from the shootas and two big shootas (trukk and mob) odds (11%) but the trukkers are now on foot and able to charge, the ideally imob'd vehicle. The complete run (dakka + boyz charge attacks + PK swings) has a 43% chance of destroying it (actually higher because my math discounts the odds of anything but the PK doing the kill, and only tracks the odds of everything else imobalising it, ignoring the tiny chance of it being glanced to death, and the less tiny chance of one of the big shootas scoring a lucky destroyed result. It turns out that if you have the move to charge the vehicle with the boys, and shoot the rear armour you can get much better odds of wrecking it then you could by not doing so. That said, this does mean you need to get behind it with your 12" movement (though only within 8" of it, and you can be closer) as opposed to in b2b anywhere with your 12" movement (plank max). If one's advancing from the front, this could be an issue. If one is coming from a flank, mayhaps over some terrain? Less so.


You know what? You go for it. Use your shootaz as your anti-tank. Come back and let us know how that worked out for you, and how long your opponent laughed at you when you told them what your strategy was after your "savvy opponent" obliterates your army. I'm curious to see how it turns out.


--------------------
Nkelsch on the differences between disembarking from open-topped vehicles and closed vehicles.
QUOTE (nkelsch @ Dec 10 2009, 10:15 AM) *
Compare a bunch if drunk rednecks jumping out of the back of a pickup truck VS a bunch of old ladies getting off the bus.

BLAAAGH!!! Gobbstompa (WIP/Magnetizing tutorial)
WAAAGH!!! Gobbstompa (finished models)
The Legend of Gobbstompa (fluff)
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Blakkreaper
post Jun 3 2012, 11:57 PM
Post #36


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The 20% is wrong. It's 28% for at least one. Which means it's a bit more then a 1/4 chance to work (by which I mean imob or better. Not worrying about blowing it up with shootas, I agree that part is redonkulous). Yeah, I'm counting big shootas. I'm assuming you're taking an anti-inf unit, not grabbing rokkits (though as a side note, big shootas > rokkits at av10). I'm not saying that this is your go to anti-mech. I'm saying that it's less of a crazy small odds then you think, and showing the maths. Ideally you'd run some rawkit buggies and hop your guys out in the movement, shoot their metal box with the buggies, open it up, shootas open up and charge the reminants if the surrounds will let that be viable. But after the buggies flop, because they're not meltas, I'm saying one shouldn't discount the dakka with the shootas/big shootas to try and hold the box still and throw the mob at it box. If your buggies came in close enough to block a hatch, it's easy enough to block the others, and hope. It's not like they're in a great place otherwise at this stage. But we're clearly going around in circles, so let's leave it here unless someone can bring something new to the discussion?


--------------------
Cheerz to Thork for the Great Avvy.
Genrul blakkreaper ov da dreadsokk korpz - fightin' Ruleslawyer gitz and keepin' it proppa.
Let's gross our fingers and sacraface pot Blood Red to Bitz God... [Morhgoz]
I oppose RAW evil; or, more importantly; The Dice Gods oppose RAW evil. [Andrew the Eternal's proppa hiaku]

"Giving Krooza an idea, now prooven to be just as bad as saying 'Go on Dim, rant away!" [Dim Reepa]
"We don't have a Battle Tank. We have a glorified transport that eats people." "like a surgical sledgehammer." [GrogDaTyrant]
Now plugging: Da Klanz Projekt MkIII, Ladz of da waaagh kompetishun Rules As Awesome: Unofficial FAQ and Grimdark Frontier (a WiP 40k CivIV mod)
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Boss Gobbstompa
post Jun 4 2012, 07:59 AM
Post #37


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Someone who jumps out of a plane plans on their parachute opening. If that doesn't work, they plan on their reserve chute opening. If THAT doesn't work, just because they take their pants off and try that doesn't mean they should plan on it working. It MIGHT work, under exceedingly slim odds, but they should still plan on slamming into the ground despite their efforts.

When you've lost ALL of your anti-tank in the game, but somehow miraculously have all of your anti-infantry units in the most perfect position for this tactic, you should absolutely try throwing them at whatever you can. However, this isn't a tactic, a strategy, or a contingency. It's taking your pants off because you don't HAVE anything else to try.


--------------------
Nkelsch on the differences between disembarking from open-topped vehicles and closed vehicles.
QUOTE (nkelsch @ Dec 10 2009, 10:15 AM) *
Compare a bunch if drunk rednecks jumping out of the back of a pickup truck VS a bunch of old ladies getting off the bus.

BLAAAGH!!! Gobbstompa (WIP/Magnetizing tutorial)
WAAAGH!!! Gobbstompa (finished models)
The Legend of Gobbstompa (fluff)
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Nosher
post Jun 6 2012, 07:23 AM
Post #38


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Hey. Guys.

This is starting to sound a little heated.

Can we agree that the odds are most definitely slim? Chimera immobilized, chimera damaged at all - the odds are slim. This isn't a tactic that you'd always be able to use, but it's a trick to consider trying someday.

Good enough? Can we put that to bed now?

If you two want to carry on your heated discussion, why don't you try doing it via PM. I'll leave this thread open in case someone wants to play-test the idea or has something original to add (for now) - but I don't want to have to break up a fight.


--------------------
So - whenever dem doks finish staplin' yer arms back on Haky, why don't you an yer boyz come down fer a visit. We'll 'av a few squigaritas, throw a few grots around an' discuss who dis 'ere choppa really belongs to...

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